分级风险平价作为传统投资组合优化方法的替代选择——以德黑兰证券交易所为例

Marziyeh Nourahmadi, H. Sadeqi
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摘要

选择最优投资组合,平衡风险与收益,使投资收益最大化,投资风险最小化,是不同投资者面临的最关键的投资问题之一。到目前为止,已经引入了许多方法来形成投资组合,其中最著名的是马科维茨方法。马科维茨均值-方差方法在金融界广为人知,它是所有投资组合理论的基础。均值-方差理论由于难以估计不同资产类别的预期收益和协方差而存在许多实际缺陷。在本研究中,我们使用层次风险奇偶(HRP)机器学习技术,并将结果与最小方差(MVP)、均匀分布(UNIF)和风险奇偶(RP)三种方法进行比较。为了进行本研究,我们使用德黑兰证券交易所50家上市公司2018-07-01 - 2020-09-29的调整后股价。70%的数据被认为是样本内数据,剩下的30%被认为是样本外数据。[2]《伊朗金融杂志》,2011,Vol. 5, No. 4 (Nourahmadi, M.),用Sharp, Maximum Drawdown, Calmer, Sortino四个标准对结果进行了评价。结果表明,样本内的MVP方法和UNIF方法以及样本外的UNIF方法和HRP方法在锐测度中具有最好的性能。凝胶代码:G10, G11
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Hierarchical Risk Parity as an Alternative to Conventional Methods of Portfolio Optimization: (A Study of Tehran Stock Exchange)
One of the most critical investment issues faced by different investors is choosing an optimal investment portfolio and balancing risk and return in a way that, maximizes investment returns and minimize the investment risk. So far, many methods have been introduced to form a portfolio, the most famous of the Markowitz approach. The Markowitz mean-variance approach is widely known in the world of finance and, it marks the foundation of every portfolio theory. The mean-variance theory has many practical drawbacks due to the difficulty in estimating the expected return and covariance for different asset classes. In this study, we use the Hierarchical Risk Parity (HRP) machine learning technique and compare the results with the three methods of Minimum Variance (MVP), Uniform Distribution (UNIF), and Risk Parity (RP). To conduct this research, the adjusted price of 50 listed companies of the Tehran Stock Exchange for 2018-07-01 to 2020-09-29 has been used. 70% of the data are considered as in-sample and the remaining 30% as out-of-sample. We 2 Iranian Journal of Finance, 2021, Vol. 5, No. 4 (Nourahmadi, M.) evaluate the results using four criteria: Sharp, Maximum Drawdown, Calmer, Sortino. The results show that the MVP and, UNIF approach within the insample and, the UNIF and HRP approach out-of-sample have the best performance in sharp measure. Jel Codes: G10, G11
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