Reduction or Deflection? The Effect of Policy on Interconnected Asylum Flows

We study the effects of asylum policy on asylum flows. The policy changes are examined both with regard to their direct effect on the flows to the country that made the changes, and with regard to their impact on the inflows to other countries. Finally, we analyse the effect of policy on the total outflow from the sending countries. The findings clearly suggest that both a direct effect and a deflection effect are at work. The results also indicate that stricter asylum policies in the destination clusters reduce the total outflow of asylum seekers.