Research of Product Oil Demand Forecast Based on the Combination Forecast Method

The demand forecast is very necessary during the process of product oil supply because the distribution of product oil consumer market is not balanced in our country, in order to respond to market demand in time, so that, the enterprise not only keep the balance of the supply and demand of product oil by the production planning according to the information of the timely market demand forecast, but also can reduce cost of the product transportation and inventory. Now the product oil demand is forecasted in this paper by the combination forecast method based on the arithmetic average, moving average, index smoothing method. Through comprehensive use of the demand forecasting methods, we can reduce the prediction error and improve the precision of requirement forecast, and a group of optimal solution will be selected in these several forecasting methods.