Probabilistic modelling and evaluation of system adequacy

The reliability of an electric power system is defined as the probability that the power system will perform the function of delivering electric energy to consumers on a continuous basis with acceptable service quality. The power system can be divided into appropriate subsystems or functional areas that can be analysed separately – generation, transmission and distribution. The basic modeling approach for the power system adequacy assessment consists of three parts – generation model, load model and power balance model. As a final step after creating these models, system adequacy index is calculated. Probabilistic models of generation, load and power balance are used in this paper concerning short and medium term adequacy forecast.