基于规则的动态层次分析法决策方法

Yunning Liu, Shiow-yang Wu
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摘要

层次分析法(AHP)广泛应用于许多多准则决策问题,并成功地应用于许多实际案例。然而,AHP耗时长,决策模型对于快速变化的环境不够敏捷。为了克服这一缺点,我们开发了一种基于规则的动态AHP决策方法。分析了不确定条件下AHP决策过程中的关键因素,提出了用事件-条件-动作规则对专家知识进行编码的方法。我们提出了一个基于事件-条件-动作规则引起的权重更新来确定决策方案排序变化的定理和相关方法。本研究以台湾钢铁产业的供应商选择决策任务为案例,验证此方法的有效性。研究表明,我们的机制可以有效地达到与专家决策者相同的决策质量水平。
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A rule-based approach for dynamic analytic hierarchy process decision-making
The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is widely used in many multi-criteria decision-making problems and has been successfully applied to many practical cases. However, the AHP is time-consuming and the decision model is not agile enough for fast changing environment. To overcome this weakness, we develop a rule-based approach for dynamic AHP decision-making in changing environment. We analyse critical factors in the AHP decision process under uncertainty and propose to encode expert knowledge for change handling using event-condition-action rules. We propose a theorem and associated method to determine the change in ordering of decision alternatives based on event-condition-action rule-induced weight updates. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach using a case study of the supplier selection decision-making task of the steel and iron industry in Taiwan. The study shows that our mechanism can effectively reach the same level of decision quality as expert decision maker(s).
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