基于模糊层次分析法的地铁运营火灾风险评价研究

Wanqing Wang, Xiuyi Yao, Jie Liu
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引用次数: 0

摘要

火灾是地铁运行中最常见的事故之一。一旦火险得不到合理控制,就很容易造成严重的人员伤亡和财产损失。为了科学地评价地铁运营的火灾风险等级,为运营企业提供有效的消防安全管理措施,本文从地铁运营中涉及的人为因素、管理因素、环境因素和设备因素四个方面系统构建了四层体系。地铁运营火灾风险评价指标体系由3个一级指标和32个二级指标组成,采用层次分析法计算各指标的权重。其次,采用模糊综合评判法,给出了地铁运营火灾风险的计算步骤;最后,运用该模型对西南某省会城市地铁2号线进行实证分析。得出该地铁线路整体风险等级为II级,说明其运行的火灾风险较小。评价结果与地铁线路实际运行情况一致,表明评价方法具有一定的适用性和有效性。
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Research on fire risk assessment of subway operation based on fuzzy analytic hierarchy process
Fire is one of the most common accidents during subway operation. Once the fire risk is not reasonably controlled, it is very easy to cause serious casualties and property losses. In order to scientifically evaluate the fire risk level of subway operations and provide effective fire safety management measures for operating companies, this article systematically builds a four-tier system from the perspective of human factors, management factors, environmental factors, and equipment factors involved in subway operations. The subway operation fire risk evaluation index system is composed of three first-level indexes and 32 second-level indexes, and the weight of each index is calculated based on the analytic hierarchy process. Secondly, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to give the calculation steps of the fire risk of subway operation. Finally, the model is used to conduct an empirical analysis of Metro Line 2 in a provincial capital city in Southwest China. It is concluded that the overall risk level of the subway line is level II, indicating that the fire risk of its operation is relatively small. The evaluation result is consistent with the actual operation of the subway line, indicating that the evaluation method has a certain applicability and effectiveness.
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