基于数据包络分析的电力设备风险与利用率研究

Yuan Zeng, Waiying Guo, Xiaojun Li, Chao Qin, Bo He, Wentao Sun
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引用次数: 1

摘要

本文提出了表征电力系统利用率和风险水平的一系列指标,并讨论了它们之间的相互关系。特别地,本文采用概率风险评估方法来计算超限电压的安全系数。创新地运用数据包络分析(DEA)来探讨系统的最佳平衡点。通过对考虑运行风险和不考虑运行风险的电力设备的利用效率分别进行研究,揭示了风险因素对利用率的影响,指出了效率相对较低的负荷水平及其效率的提高程度。最后,以实际负荷变化情况下电力设备利用率和系统运行风险为例,验证了本文方法的有效性和有效性。
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Research on risk and utilization rate of power equipment based on data envelopment analysis
This paper puts forwards a series of indexes to represent utilization rate and risk level of power system as well as to discuss their interrelationship. In particular, probabilistic risk assessment method is adopted in this paper to calculate security coefficient of over-limit voltage. Data envelopment analysis (DEA) is used innovatively to probe into the best balance point of system. By respectively studying the use efficiency of power equipment with and without consideration of operational risks, how risk factors influence utilization rate is revealed and these load levels corresponding to relatively lower efficiency and to what extent their efficiencies can get improved are also pointed out. In the end, a real case study of utilization rate of power equipment and system operational risk in the condition of actual load changes is given to verify the effectiveness and validity of the method mentioned in this paper.
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