使用GENeSYS-MOD建模100%可再生情景的经验教训

P. oei, Thorsten Burandt, K. Hainsch, Konstantin Löffler, C. Kemfert
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引用次数: 15

摘要

模型的主要目的从来不是提供数据,而是提供见解。尽管如此,建模者仍然面临着使用其模型的最佳配置来提供有用的见解的挑战。在能源系统建模的情况下,由于能源系统通过部门耦合的潜力和需求转换的复杂性日益增加,这变得更加复杂。因此,本文展示了100%可再生能源情景的能源系统建模的具体特征和挑战。研究结果基于对框架GENeSYS-MOD的各种应用和修改,研究了世界上不同地区的高可再生配置特征,包括中国、印度、南非、墨西哥、欧洲、德国和哥伦比亚。本文详细阐述了我们过去几年在空间和时间分辨率方面选择GENeSYS-MOD的最佳但仍然可计算的配置的经验,以及对能量系统跃迁效应的足够详细的描述。因此,本文的目的是双重的,为了更好地理解和解释现有的模型,以及改进未来的建模练习。
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Lessons from Modeling 100% Renewable Scenarios Using GENeSYS-MOD
The main aim of models has never been to provide numbers, but insights. Still, challenges prevail for modelers to use the best configuration of their models to provide helpful insights. In the case of energy system modelling, this becomes even more complicated due to increasing complexity of the energy system transition through the potential and need for sector coupling. This paper therefore showcases specific characteristics and challenges for energy system modelling of 100% renewable scenarios. The findings are based on various applications and modifications of the framework GENeSYS-MOD examining different regional characteristics for high renewable configurations in the world, China, India, South-Africa, Mexico, Europe, Germany, and Colombia. The paper elaborates on our experiences of the last years of choosing the best, yet still computable, configuration of GENeSYS-MOD with respect to spatial and time resolution as well as sufficient detailed description of the energy system transition effects. The aim of this paper is therefore twofold, to better understand and interpret existing models as well as to improve future modeling exercises.
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