应用系统动力学来识别和评估经济潜力,以改善万卡维利卡卡斯特罗维雷纳省的发展

Javier Francisco Márquez Camarena, V. Peña, Raúl Meza Cárdenas
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摘要

本研究论文允许应用动力系统来识别和评估万卡维利卡省Castrovirreyna省的经济潜力,以改善其发展。同时,它有助于确定哪些因素和系统信息在其识别和评估中起作用。本研究是非实验性的描述性研究。为了从该省的自然资源中获取信息,在模拟评估Castrovirreyna潜力之后,进行了250次调查和对人们和当局的访谈。这一初步分析表明,经济潜力的下降是由以下因素造成的:人们教育水平低下、当局漠不关心、信息缺乏(95%)、对自己的自然资源了解不足(70%)、道路稀少(40%)和灌溉渠道稀少(30%)。在第四年,该模型显示上述因素的改善,农业增加了25%,采矿业增加了23%,畜牧业增加了19%,渔业增加了26%,旅游业增加了14%,这将促进该省的发展。最后,通过对生产活动的综合管理,Castrovirreyna省的经济潜力将从20%大幅增加到826%,对提高人口的生活质量产生积极影响。
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Aplicación de la dinámica de sistemas en la identificación y evaluación de las potencialidades económicas para mejorar el desarrollo de la provincia de Castrovirreyna, Huancavelica
This research paper has allowed to apply the dynamical systems to identify and evaluate the economic potentialities in the province of Castrovirreyna, department of Huancavelica in order to improve its development. At the same time, it helps to determine what factors and systematic information influence in the identification and assessment of it. This study was non experimental of descriptive scope. To obtain information from the natural resources of the province, 250 surveys and interviews with people and authorities were conducted followed by a simulation to assess the Castrovirreyna potential. This initial analysis shows the decline of the economic potential due to factors such as people’s poor instruction, indifferent authorities, lack of information (95 %), poor knowledge of their own natural resources (70 %), few access roads (40 %), and few irrigation canals (30 %). In the fourth year the model showed an improvement of the mentioned factors by an increase of 25 % in agriculture, 23 % in mining, 19 % in livestock, 26 % in fishery and 14 % in tourism, which would enhance the development of the province. Finally, with an integrated management of productive activities, the economic potential of Castrovirreyna province would substantially increase from 20 % to 826 %, showing a positive effect on improving the life quality of the population.
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