印度宏观经济的重点是出口与投资主导的增长战略-问题和影响的综述论文

Kaushik Ghosh, Abhisita Chakraborty, A. Sinha, M. Mukhopadhyay
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摘要

2018-19年和2019-20年印度经济调查显示,印度经济要么处于储蓄、投资的良性循环,要么处于恶性循环。出口以投资和出口为周期的主要驱动因素。本文结合印度经济调查数据,着重分析了出口导向型增长和投资导向型增长之间的两难选择。进行了一项比较研究,以提供选择增长模型的最佳组合的指导方针,其对经济增长变量的潜在影响,为每个模型选择适当的部门,以及在宏观经济、部门和行业层面采用的框架货币、财政和贸易政策的基本原理,这些政策使用了三重增长战略的混合物。根据2018-19年和2019-20年两次经济调查提供的事实和数据,目前的论述总结了在国家增长模式中采用出口主导和投资主导混合增长的基本原理。
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A Review Paper on India’s Macroeconomic Focus on Export Versus Investment Led Growth Strategies – Issues and Implications
The Indian Economic Surveys 2018-19 and 2019-20 views the economy in either a virtuous or a vicious cycle of Savings, investment & export with investment and export as the key drivers of the cycles. The current paper focuses on the dilemma of choosing between the two alternatives, i.e., export led growth and investment led growth in light of the Indian Economic Surveys. A comparative study has been conducted to provide a guideline for choosing the optimal mix of growth models, its potential impact on variables of economic growth, choosing the appropriate sector for each model along with the rationale of framing monetary, fiscal and trade policies adopted at macroeconomic, sector and industry level that uses an admixture of the three-fold growth strategies. The current discourse concludes with a rationale of adopting a mixture of export led and investment led growth in the national growth model in the light of the facts and figures provided in the two Economic Surveys of 2018-19 and 2019-20.
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