Okky Widya Arditya, W. Widowati, Sutimin Sutimin, R. H. Tjahjana, P. S. Sasongko
{"title":"用于预测COVID-19感染个体的Logistic模型开发:印度尼西亚爪哇省中部的案例研究","authors":"Okky Widya Arditya, W. Widowati, Sutimin Sutimin, R. H. Tjahjana, P. S. Sasongko","doi":"10.14710/jfma.v4i1.8385","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"In early 2020, covid-19 spread fast in the worldwide and cause the high death. The disease started from the Asian region which resulted in a viral pandemic in 2020. In order to anticipate the increasing of the cases, a strategy is needed to inhibit its transmission. The mathematical model approach is important tool for predicting of covid-19 spread in populations. In this paper we propose and analyze the dynamical behaviour of a developed logistic model by considering the effect of the contact patterns in reducing the covid-19 spread process. To verify the developed logistic model, numerical simulation was given with case study of covid-19 spread for patients under supervision in Central Java Province, Indonesia. Based on simulation results, it was found that physical distancing can reduce the growth of the covid-19 spread for patient under supervision. It can be seen from the number of covid-19 spread for patients under supervision with physical distancing intervention smaller compared to without physical distancing intervention.","PeriodicalId":359074,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Fundamental Mathematics and Applications (JFMA)","volume":"16 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2021-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"LOGISTIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT FOR PREDICTION OF COVID-19 INFECTED INDIVIDUALS: CASE STUDY IN CENTRAL JAVA PROVINCE, INDONESIA\",\"authors\":\"Okky Widya Arditya, W. Widowati, Sutimin Sutimin, R. H. Tjahjana, P. S. Sasongko\",\"doi\":\"10.14710/jfma.v4i1.8385\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"In early 2020, covid-19 spread fast in the worldwide and cause the high death. The disease started from the Asian region which resulted in a viral pandemic in 2020. In order to anticipate the increasing of the cases, a strategy is needed to inhibit its transmission. The mathematical model approach is important tool for predicting of covid-19 spread in populations. In this paper we propose and analyze the dynamical behaviour of a developed logistic model by considering the effect of the contact patterns in reducing the covid-19 spread process. To verify the developed logistic model, numerical simulation was given with case study of covid-19 spread for patients under supervision in Central Java Province, Indonesia. Based on simulation results, it was found that physical distancing can reduce the growth of the covid-19 spread for patient under supervision. It can be seen from the number of covid-19 spread for patients under supervision with physical distancing intervention smaller compared to without physical distancing intervention.\",\"PeriodicalId\":359074,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Fundamental Mathematics and Applications (JFMA)\",\"volume\":\"16 1\",\"pages\":\"0\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2021-07-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Fundamental Mathematics and Applications (JFMA)\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.14710/jfma.v4i1.8385\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Fundamental Mathematics and Applications (JFMA)","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.14710/jfma.v4i1.8385","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
LOGISTIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT FOR PREDICTION OF COVID-19 INFECTED INDIVIDUALS: CASE STUDY IN CENTRAL JAVA PROVINCE, INDONESIA
In early 2020, covid-19 spread fast in the worldwide and cause the high death. The disease started from the Asian region which resulted in a viral pandemic in 2020. In order to anticipate the increasing of the cases, a strategy is needed to inhibit its transmission. The mathematical model approach is important tool for predicting of covid-19 spread in populations. In this paper we propose and analyze the dynamical behaviour of a developed logistic model by considering the effect of the contact patterns in reducing the covid-19 spread process. To verify the developed logistic model, numerical simulation was given with case study of covid-19 spread for patients under supervision in Central Java Province, Indonesia. Based on simulation results, it was found that physical distancing can reduce the growth of the covid-19 spread for patient under supervision. It can be seen from the number of covid-19 spread for patients under supervision with physical distancing intervention smaller compared to without physical distancing intervention.