社会投资项目的风险分析

Vojin Golubovic, M. M. Mukhamedova, A. N. Xembayeva, A. S. Kulembayeva
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摘要

“社会项目的特点是执行收入水平低,但它们对该地区、城市、地区的人口福利有非常明显的社会回报。然而,这样的项目也会受到风险的影响,需要确定风险的级别,以便对项目采取各种纠正措施。这些活动可以是:进行额外的市场研究,选择可供选择的建筑区域,选择另一个承包商等。此外,对每个项目都进行了几次审查,目的是根据专家的专家意见确定风险,并计算了一些指标,其中之一是预算和社会效率。在本文中,我们将考虑项目风险的主要原因,风险类型,当前评估社会项目风险的方法,并描述影响风险管理政策和监测系统选择的风险边界。将考虑识别和评估风险的基本规则,以及进行项目经济评估的规则。以一个投资社会项目为例,我们将计算对价格、成本和销售量变化的敏感性指标,并编制一个与一定风险水平相关的价格影响下的利润变化矩阵。关键词:社会项目,项目风险,风险等级,发生原因,效率评价,敏感性指标
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RISK ANALYSIS OF A SOCIAL INVESTMENT PROJECT
"Social projects are characterized by a low level of income from implementation, but they have a very pronounced social return in favour of the welfare of the population of the region, city, district. However, such projects are also subject to risks, which level needs to be determined in order to take various corrective actions on projects. Such activities can be: conducting additional market research, choosing alternative areas for construction, choosing another contractor, etc. Also, for each project, several examinations are made, which are aimed at identifying risks based on the expert opinions of specialists, a number of indicators are calculated, one of which is budgetary and social efficiency. In the article, we will consider the main causes of project risks, types of risks, current methods for assessing the risks of social projects, and describe the boundaries of risks that affect the choice of risk management policy and monitoring system. consider The basic rules for identifying and assessing risks will be considered, as well as the rules for conducting economic appraisals of projects. Using the example of an investment social project, we will calculate indicators of sensitivity to changes in price, cost and sales volume, and also compile a matrix of profit changes under the influence of prices in relation to a certain level of risk. Keywords: social projects, project risks, risk level, causes of occurrence, efficiency assessment, indicators of sensitivity."
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