印尼天然橡胶出口竞争力及出口价格影响因素分析

Putri Daulika, Ke-Chung Peng, N. Hanani
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引用次数: 22

摘要

橡胶是印尼主要的种植商品之一,面向国际市场,出口目的地国家有几个。橡胶对经济有积极的贡献,因为它为国家创造了外汇。本研究旨在分析(1)影响印尼天然橡胶出口价格的因素;(2)印尼橡胶竞争力在比较优势和国际竞争优势中的地位。本研究使用的时间序列数据是从1995年到2017年。采用多元线性回归分析印尼天然橡胶出口价格的影响因素,采用显性比较优势法(RCA)和贸易专业化指数法(TSI)分析印尼天然橡胶的位置竞争力。本研究结果表明:(1)对印尼天然橡胶出口价格影响显著的因素是国际橡胶价格、汇率和国内消费。(2)在竞争力分析的基础上,通过显示比较优势(RCA)表明,1995-2017年印尼天然橡胶出口在国际市场上的竞争力具有比较优势,RCA平均值> 1,等于1.01。而印尼橡胶出口竞争力的竞争优势正处于成熟阶段。出现这种情况是因为贸易专业化指数(TSI)的值接近于1,即0.98。
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ANALYSIS ON EXPORT COMPETITIVENESS AND FACTORS AFFECTING OF NATURAL RUBBER EXPORT PRICE IN INDONESIA
Rubber is one of Indonesia's leading plantation commodities that is oriented to the international market with export destination countries to several countries. Rubber provides a positive contribution to the economy because it generates foreign exchange for the country. This study aims to analyze (1) the factors that influence the price of Indonesian natural rubber exports and (2) the position of Indonesia's rubber competitiveness in comparative and international competitive advantages. This study uses time-series data is from 1995 to 2017. Data were analyzed using multiple linear regression for influence factors the price of Indonesian natural rubber exports, while to analyze the position competitiveness of Indonesian natural rubber that is by using a revealed comparative advantage (RCA), and competitive advantage by using the Trade Specialization Index approach (TSI). The results of this study show (1) the factor that significantly affects the price of Indonesia's natural rubber exports are international rubber prices, exchange rate, and domestic consumption. (2) Based on competitiveness analysis, through Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) indicate that the competitiveness of Indonesia's natural rubber exports on the international market has a comparative advantage seen from 1995-2017 with an average value of RCA> 1 which is equal to 1.01. While the competitive advantage for the competitiveness of Indonesian rubber exports is at the maturation stage. This condition occurs because the value of the Trade Specialization Index (TSI) approaches 1, which is 0.98.
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