中华人民共和国“一带一路”战略倡议对俄罗斯联邦社会经济发展的影响

G. Khadiullina
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摘要

本研究的目的是确定俄罗斯联邦参与实施中国“一带一路”战略倡议的客观和主观先决条件,以及后果。在研究过程中,我们设定并解决了以下任务:分析了2013年至今战略倡议形成和实施的阶段;研究了丝绸之路经济带项目对中国经济发展指标动态的影响;确定了俄中对外经济关系发展的主要方向,以及项目实施对俄罗斯经济的优势和威胁。问题的多维性决定了需要使用世界经济理论、国家经济调控理论、国际贸易理论和国际经济关系理论的规定。为了实现其目标,本研究采用了一种系统的方法,这使得考虑中华人民共和国“一带一路”战略倡议作为实现参与国的绝对和相对优势的结果,并确定其对其经济发展动态影响的性质成为可能。研究认为,俄罗斯经济的绝对和相对优势、历史和文化因素,以及俄罗斯联邦在一体化进程和欧亚经济联盟框架内维护地区安全方面的主导作用,是俄罗斯联邦参与实施“一带一路”战略倡议的先决条件之一。分析表明,俄罗斯和中国在“一带一路”战略倡议框架内的贸易和经济合作前景是由于对国内总需求和总供给的稳定增长率的预测,以及旨在形成有效制度规范一体化进程的政策文件的制定。
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Impact of the “One Belt, One Road” Strategic Initiative of the People's Republic of China on the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation
The aim of the study is to identify objective and subjective prerequisites, as well as the consequences of the participation of the Russian Federation in the implementation of the Chinese strategic initiative “One Belt, One Road”. During the study, we set and solved the following tasks: analyzed the stages of formation and implementation of the strategic initiative in the period from 2013 to the present; studied the impact of the Silk Road Economic Belt project on the dynamics of indicators of the development of the Chinese economy; identified the main directions for the development of Russian–Chinese foreign economic relations, as well as the advantages and threats of the project implementation for the Russian economy. The multidimensional nature of the problem predetermined the need to use the provisions of theories of the world economy, state regulation of the economy, theories of international trade and international economic relations. In order to achieve its objectives, the study used a systematic approach, which made it possible to consider the strategic initiative of the People's Republic of China “One Belt, One Road” as a result of realizing the absolute and relative advantages of the participating countries and determine the nature of its impact on the dynamics of their economic development. The study concluded that the absolute and relative advantages of the Russian economy, historical and cultural factors, as well as the leading role of the Russian Federation in integration processes and in maintaining regional security within the framework of the Eurasian Economic Union, are among the prerequisites for the participation of the Russian Federation in the implementation of the “One Belt, One Road” strategic initiative. The analysis showed that the prospects of trade and economic cooperation between Russia and China within the framework of the strategic initiative “One Belt, One Road” are due to the predicted steady growth rate of domestic aggregate demand and supply, as well as the development of policy documents aimed at the formation of effective institutions that regulate integration processes.
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