人口、贸易开放和外国投资对印度环境的影响:STIRPAT模型的实证评估

R. Manocha
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摘要

印度在经济发展的几乎所有方面都表现出色。然而,印度的经济发展并不尽如人意;气候和环境发生了巨大变化。根据2021年全球气候风险指数,印度被列为世界上受气候影响最严重的第七大国家。本研究试图实证评估印度经济增长、人口、外国投资和贸易开放对碳排放的影响。本研究采用人口、富裕和技术随机回归影响(STIRPAT)框架和环境库兹涅特曲线(EKC)模型,采用1971-2020年的时间序列数据。单位根检验的结果表明变量存在混合平稳性,因此,自回归分布滞后方法适合于捕获长期和短期动态。结果验证了EKC对富裕程度和人口的影响。FDI流入和贸易开放度的结果表明,印度存在污染避风港假说。提出了绿色和可持续生产过程的政策倡议。
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Impact of Population, Trade Openness, and Foreign Investment on India’s Environment: An Empirical Evaluation of a STIRPAT Model
India is excelling in almost all parameters of economic development. However, India is experiencing economic development with a pinch of salt; massive climate and environmental changes are seen. As per Global Climate Risk Index 2021, India was ranked as the 7th worst climate hit country in the world. The present study is an attempt to empirically evaluate the impact of India’s economic growth, population, foreign investment, and trade openness on carbon emissions. The study adopts the STochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology (STIRPAT) framework augmented with the Environment Kuznet’s Curve (EKC) model with a time series data over the period 1971–2020. Results for unit root testing indicated the presence of mix stationarity for the variables, therefore, the autoregressive distributed lag approach was apt for capturing the long- and short-run dynamics. The results validated EKC for affluence and population. The outcome for FDI inflows and trade openness suggested the presence of pollution haven hypothesis for India. Policy initiatives toward green and sustainable production processes are suggested.
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