洛茨基省企业平均经营年限和企业平均追加经营年限的估算方法

A. Mikulec
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摘要

在持续时间分析中,企业运作的时间,即从成立到清算,用一个随机变量来表示。用于时间描述的基本特征函数有:密度函数、分布函数、生存函数和危害函数。第一个f(t)定义了企业在t期间清算的概率,即在⟨t, t + 1)时间段内;第二个F(t)表示企业从成立之日起一直持续到最长期限结束(记为t)的概率,即⟨0,t)期限结束;第三个S(t)定义了企业生存时间长于周期结束的概率,记为t,为⟨0,t)周期结束的时间;最后一个h(t)评估了企业清算过程在t期间的强度。本文从理论和实践方面介绍了确定时间持续时间的选定分布参数:企业的平均持续时间和企业的平均额外持续时间,这两个参数也用于表征公司的生存模式。上述考虑得到了对2001-2015年洛兹基省后续建立企业(包括清算企业)的上述措施的计算的支持。
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Methods of estimating the mean duration of enterprises and the mean additional duration of enterprises in Lodzkie Voivodship
In a duration analysis, the time of enterprises functioning, i.e. from the foundation to their liquidation, is represented by a random variable. The basic characteristic functions used for time description include: density function, distribution function, survival function and hazard function. The first one f(t) defines the probability of enterprise liquidation in the period denoted as t, i.e. in ⟨t, t + 1) period of time; the second one F(t) expresses the probability of enterprise persistence from the moment of its establishment to the maximum end of the period denoted as t, end of ⟨0, t) period of time; the third one S(t) defines the probability of enterprise survival for longer than the end of the period denoted as t, end of ⟨0, t) period of time; and the last one h(t) assesses the intensity of the process of enterprise liquidation in the period denoted as t. The article presents theoretical and practical aspects of determining selected distribution parameters of time duration: the mean duration of enterprises and the mean additional duration of enterprises, which are also used for characterizing patterns of companies’ survival. The considerations are supported by calculations of the above-mentioned measures for subsequent cohorts of established enterprises (including the liquidated ones) in Lodzkie Voivodship in the years 2001-2015.
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