从状态依赖偏好看波动性之谜、股权溢价之谜和均值回归的相互关系

S. Choi, C. Giannikos
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引用次数: 3

摘要

实证研究表明,资产收益的时间行为具有系统的规律,这与经济周期有关。我们提出了一个捕捉这种行为的简单模型。此模型是围绕状态依赖的偏好结构构建的,其中状态依赖关系与业务周期相关。在这种情况下,波动性之谜、股票溢价之谜和均值回归似乎确实是相互关联的现象。解释这三个谜题的一个必要条件是状态变量与市场投资组合和经济周期负相关。
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A Note on the Interrelation of Volatility Puzzle, Equity Premium Puzzle, and Mean Reversion through State Dependent Preferences
According to empirical studies, there is a systematic pattern in the temporal behavior of asset returns and this is related to the business cycle. We propose a simple model that captures this behavior. This model is built around a state dependent preference structure where the state dependency is related to the business cycle. In this setting the volatility puzzle, the equity premium puzzle and mean-reversion appear to be indeed interrelated phenomena. A necessary condition for the three puzzles to be explained is that the state variable is negatively correlated with the market portfolio cum business cycle.
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