基于系统工程的电力供应链运行优化模型

B. Qu, L. Lu
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引用次数: 2

摘要

供应链是一个开放的、动态的、复杂的系统,受诸多不确定性因素的影响。电力供应链也不例外。本文采用系统工程的理论和方法,建立了煤炭价格和电力需求不确定情况下中国电力供应链的鲁棒优化运行模型。将煤炭价格的不确定性建模为一个对称的、连续的、有限的区间,将不确定性需求描述为一个具有一定概率的情景集。然后给出了数值算例,结果表明,这两种不确定性在一定范围内只会降低相关企业的利润,而供应链的运营策略是恒定的,即所提供的模型是鲁棒的。
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Optimization model for electric power supply chain operation based on system engineering
Supply chain is an open, dynamic and complex system impacted by a lot of uncertainty factors. Power supply chain is no exception. In this paper, adopting the theories and methods of system engineering, we establish a robust optimal operation model for China electric power supply chain in the context of uncertain coal prices and electricity demands. The uncertainty of coal price is modeled as a symmetrical, continual and limited interval, and the uncertain demands are described as a scenario set with certain probability. Then, numerical examples are presented and the results show that the two kinds of uncertainties within a certain range only reduce the profits of related enterprise, while the operation strategy of supply chain is constant, that is, the model provided is robust.
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