国家安全和财富创造:尼日利亚可持续增长的噩梦

Benedict Azu, D. Uduh, Andrew I. Mobosi
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引用次数: 0

摘要

不安全一直是尼日利亚作为一个国家面临的最大发展和增长障碍的诸多挑战之一。自1960年独立以来,该国的发展步伐一直受到这种或那种形式的不安全的阻碍。几十年来,该国经历了高贫困率,青年失业率,收入差距扩大,冲突和冲突以及暴力等问题,超过70%的人口生活在贫困线以下。安全无疑是实现和维持每一项有意义的发展的支柱。世界上大多数发达国家都高度重视安全,这一点印证了这一论断。虽然尼日利亚拥有丰富的自然资源和人力资本,但对环境不安全的许多挑战的疏忽似乎造成了漏洞百出的安全状况,从而产生暴力并阻碍增长和发展。本文旨在实证地建立尼日利亚国家安全和财富创造之间的联系。报告还估计了国家安全对尼日利亚可持续增长的影响。考虑到不安全感对增长的影响存在时滞,本文建立了自回归分布滞后(ARDL)模型进行分析。预计安全对增长具有正的时滞效应,而不安全则会对可持续增长产生负面影响。
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National Security and Wealth Creation: The Nigerian Sustainable Growth Nightmare
Insecurity has been one of the many challenges implicated as the biggest developmental and growth obstacle facing Nigeria as a nation. Since the independent in 1960, the country developmental strides have been hampered by one form of insecurity or the other. The country over the decades has experienced high rate of poverty, youth unemployment, widening income disparity, clashes and conflict, and violence among others with over 70% of her population living below poverty line. Security is undoubtedly the pillar upon which every meaningful development could be achieved and sustained. Lend credence to this assertion, most advanced nations of the world place high premium on security. Whilst Nigeria is richly blessed with abundant natural resources and human capital, negligence to numerous challenges of insecurity of the environment appears to have created porous security condition that engendered violence and retards growth and development. This paper is designed to empirically establish the nexus between national security and wealth creation in Nigeria. It also estimates the effect of national security on sustainable growth in Nigeria. Noting that insecurity affect growth with time lag, an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model is built for the analysis. It is expected that security exacts positive time lag effects on growth, whilst insecurity negates sustainable growth.
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