尼日利亚的宏观经济状况和失业率

Augustine C. Osigwe, Kenneth Ahamba
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引用次数: 1

摘要

我们检验了选定的宏观经济变量对尼日利亚失业率的影响使用电池协整检验。结果揭示了失业率(UNER)与选定的宏观经济变量之间的长期关系。向量误差修正模型(VECM)的结果表明,滞后2的实际GDP和当前汇率(EXR)正影响UNER。此外,滞后1的UNER,滞后2的货币供应量(M2),滞后2的EXR,当前贷款利率(LR)及其第一个滞后对UNER产生负面影响。这些结果是鲁棒性满意的各种诊断测试,包括残差正态性假设,自相关校正和白色异方差。
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Macroeconomic conditions and unemployment in Nigeria
We examine the effect of selected macroeconomic variables on unemployment rate in Nigeria using a battery cointegration tests. Results reveals a long run relation between unemployment rate (UNER) and chosen macroeconomic variables. The results of the vector error correction model (VECM) show that real GDP at lag 2 and current exchange rate (EXR) positively affect UNER. Moreover, UNER at lag 1, money supply (M2) at lag 2, EXR at lag 2, current lending rate (LR) and its first lag negatively affects UNER. These results are robust to the satisfaction of various diagnostic tests including residual normality assumption, correction for autocorrelation and white heteroskedasticity.
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