大型白种母猪繁殖特性的长期动态分析

O. Kramarenko, S. Luhovyi, Оlena Yulevich, Serhii Kramarenko
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摘要

在生猪育种领域,主要目标是提高仔猪的生育能力和存活率,以最大限度地提高每头母猪每年出生和断奶时的窝大小。本研究的目的是通过时间序列分析确定大白品种母猪主要繁殖特征的长期动态特征,以及气候因素(主要是温度)在这些动态表现中的作用。为了进行分析,我们使用了2007-2017年期间在Tavriyski svini LLC(乌克兰Kherson地区Skadovsky区)条件下饲养的大型白色品种母猪的原始数据。使用Spearman秩相关系数确定趋势的存在。此外,估计了滞后1 ~ 45个月的自相关系数。检测周期的存在和持续时间。结果表明,在研究期间,与仔猪出生总数的关系呈负相关趋势,与仔猪出生和断奶平均体重的关系呈正相关趋势。此外,仔猪出生时平均体重和断奶时平均体重的时间序列变化具有明显的周期性。结果表明,冬季较高的温度会导致仔猪出生时平均体重下降,但会增加断奶仔猪的数量。3 - 5月的温度明显偏离最佳温度(任何一个方向),导致母猪繁殖力下降,因为窝中死产仔猪的数量和比例增加。最后,夏季气温升高导致死产仔猪数量增加,仔猪平均初生重有随夏季气温升高而降低的趋势。因此,确定了三个过程在母猪繁殖特征长期动态特征形成中的作用:a)长期趋势;B)循环过程;C)与动物对热应激反应有关的随机季节性波动
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Analysis of long-term dynamics of reproductive characteristics of sows of the large white breed
In the field of pig breeding, the main goal is to increase the level of fertility and survival of piglets in order to maximize the size of the nest both at birth and at weaning per sow per year. The purpose of this study was to determine the features of the long-term dynamics of the main reproductive features of sows of the large white breed using time series analysis, as well as the role of climatic factors (primarily, temperature) in the manifestation of these dynamics. For the analysis, we used primary data on sows of the large white breed, which were kept in the conditions of Tavriyski svini LLC (Skadovsky district, Kherson region, Ukraine) during 2007-2017. The presence of a trend was determined using the Spearman rank correlation coefficient. In addition, autocorrelation coefficients were estimated for lags from 1 to 45 months. to detect the presence and duration of cycles. It was established that during the research period there was a negative trend in relation to the total number of piglets at birth and, conversely, a positive trend in relation to the average weight of one piglet at birth and weaning. In addition, pronounced cyclicity of changes was revealed for the time series of the average weight of one piglet at birth and the average weight of one piglet at weaning. It was established that a higher temperature in the winter months led to a decrease in the average weight of one piglet at birth, but contributed to an increase in the number of piglets at weaning. Significant temperature deviations from the optimum (in either direction) in March-May led to a decrease in the fertility of sows due to an increase in the number and proportion of stillborn piglets in the nest. Finally, higher summer temperatures contributed to an increase in the number of stillborn piglets, and there was a tendency for the mean birth weight of one piglet to decrease with increasing air temperatures in summer. Thus, the role of three processes was established in the formation of features of long-term dynamics of reproductive characteristics of sows: a) long-term trend; b) cyclic processes; c) random seasonal fluctuations associated with the reaction of animals to heat stress
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