Evaluation of the Reliability of Emergency Networks under Time Constraints

In transport networks, especially in the case of emergency, hurried people or heavy traffic tends not to be very obedient to any law. Blocking flow is a kind of phenomenon occurring frequently in the emergency network(EN). When the network is blocked, there are various saturated flows and different flow distribution of arcs. The value of the saturated flow and its expended time from the source to the sink are important indices to evaluate the system reliability for ENs. We try to evaluate the system reliability that the saturated flow of the network is not less than the demand d and the flow capability per unit time is not less than the threshold coefficient lambda0. Based on the saturated model, we simulate the probability of the different arc flows. An algorithm based on the blocking cutset of the EN is proposed to evaluate the network reliability. Finally, A numerical example illustrates how to calculate the corresponding reliabilities for level (d,lambda0)