东南亚地区物流需求预测研究

Thi Hai Yen Nguyen
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引用次数: 4

摘要

本文从东南亚物流发展的角度对东南亚的物流需求进行了预测。这既是支持东南亚贸易政策的重要前提,也是促进东南亚物流业发展、建设物流基础设施、提高物流服务水平的重要前提。由于东南亚各国经济发展水平、贸易结构、基础设施建设和物流发展水平的差异。因此,考虑到东南亚国家的实际情况,本文选择了东南亚的21个城市作为研究对象。运用L-OD物流需求预测方法对东南亚地区的物流需求进行预测。获得东南亚21个城市未来物流发生量及吸引力。并构建双约束重力模型对东南亚地区物流配送进行预测。预测结果为东南亚地区未来物流发展规划提供了科学的数据支持。
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Research on Logistics Demand Forecast in Southeast Asia
This article predicts Southeast Asia’s logistics needs from a Southeast Asian logistics development perspective. This is not only an important prerequisite for supporting Southeast Asia’s trade policy, but also promoting the development of Southeast Asia’s logistics industry, building logistics infrastructure and improving the level of logistics services. Due to differences in economic development levels, trade structures, infrastructure construction and logistics development levels of Southeast Asian countries. Therefore, considering the actual situation of Southeast Asian countries, this article selected 21 cities in Southeast Asia as the research object. Use L-OD logistics demand forecasting method to forecast logistics demand in Southeast Asia. Obtain the amount of logistics occurrence and attraction in 21 cities in Southeast Asia in the future. And construct a double constrained gravity model to predict logistics distribution in Southeast Asia. The forecast results provide scientific data support for future logistics development planning in Southeast Asia.
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