Probability Analysis of Traffic Accident Occurrence Based on Incomplete and Unreliable Evidence

The paper presents a methodology for analyzing a traffic accident and evaluating the existence of a traffic accident in the conditions of incomplete and unreliable evidence. Namely, the examination of the causes of a traffic accident is the usual activity of traffic experts who, with their knowledge, experience and skills, help the court and parties in the court proceedings to find out from the qualified, experienced and impartial person the reasons for the occurrence of a traffic accident, and in relation to that, mistakes and responsibilities participants in a traffic accident. In contrast, lately there are phenomena of traffic accidents in which individuals and/or groups try to improvise traffic accidents in order to achieve their various benefits and interests. This paper provides a methodological approach to such an expert evaluation of probability of traffic accident evaluation with examples in the cases of vehicle-vehicle and vehicle-pedestrian collision.