尼泊尔商业银行信贷行为

Shiva Poudel
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摘要

本文利用面板数据分析了尼泊尔8家主要商业银行2002/03至2014/15年期间的104项观察结果,研究了尼泊尔商业银行信贷的主要指标。商业银行提供的信贷总额被认为是商业银行信贷的代表。分析证实,银行规模、流动性比率、存款资本比、现金准备金率和投资组合对尼泊尔商业银行信贷有显著的正向影响。相反,信用风险(不良贷款占总贷款的比例)对商业银行信贷有显著的负面影响。宏观经济变量方面,通货膨胀率对尼泊尔商业银行信贷具有显著的正向影响,而银行间利率对商业银行信贷具有显著的负向影响。因此,研究尼泊尔商业银行的银行信贷行为在多大程度上受到不同企业特定变量以及宏观经济变量的影响是很重要的。定期存款占比高的银行,其存贷比高于活期存款占比高的银行,这是因为活期存款的不稳定性更大。其中,以8家银行为样本,按国有银行或主要控股银行2家、外资合资银行3家、民营独资银行3家进行分类。相反,信用风险(不良贷款占总贷款的比例)对银行信贷有显著的负向影响。宏观经济变量方面,通货膨胀率对尼泊尔商业银行信贷具有显著的正向影响,而银行间利率对商业银行信贷具有显著的负向影响。
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Commercial bank credit behaviour in Nepal
This paper examines the major indicators of commercial bank credit in Nepal using panel data analysis of 104 observations from eight major commercial banks operated in Nepal for the period of 2002/03 to 2014/15. The total credit facility provided by the commercial banks is considered as the proxy of commercial bank credit. The analysis confirmed that bank size, liquidity ratio, deposit to capital ratio, cash reserve ratio and investment portfolio have the significant positive impact on commercial bank credit in Nepal. Contrarily, credit risk (the ratio of non-performing loan to total loan) has the significant negative impact on commercial bank credit. Regarding macroeconomic variables, rate of inflation has the significant positive impact whereas inter-bank interest rate has the significant negative impact on commercial bank credit in Nepal. Therefore, it is important to examine how far the bank credit behavior of the Nepali commercial bank is being affected by the different firm specific variables as well as the macroeconomic variables. Banks with high proportions of their deposits in time deposits have higher loan-deposit ratios than do banks with high proportions of demand deposits, due to the greater instability of the latter. Among them, eight banks were taken as sample by stratifying two government owned or its major holdings, three joint-venture with foreign banks and three banks fully operated by the private sectors. Contrarily, credit risk (the ratio of non-performing loan to total loan) has the significant negative impact on bank credit. Regarding macroeconomic variables, rate of inflation has the significant positive impact whereas inter-bank interest rate has the significant negative impact on commercial bank credit in Nepal.
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