Predicting Software Defects Based on Cognitive Error Theories

As the primary cause of software defects, human error is the key to understanding and perhaps to predicting and preventing software defects. However, little research has been done to forecast software defects based on defects' cognitive nature. This paper proposes an idea for predicting software defects by applying the current scientific understanding of human error mechanisms. This new prediction method is based on the main causal mechanism underlying software defects: an error-prone scenario triggers a sequence of human error modes. Preliminary evidence for supporting this idea is presented.