9/11后巴基斯坦与阿富汗关系的维度

Muhammad Tariq
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引用次数: 1

摘要

阿富汗由于其无可否认的地缘政治独特性,在中亚和南亚地区占据着举足轻重的地位。在这个地区,巴基斯坦是最直接的邻国,如果阿富汗内部出现任何动荡,巴基斯坦就会立即退出。长达三十年的阿富汗战争完全改变了巴基斯坦的内部和外部安全参数和模式。自9/11以来,巴基斯坦在反恐战争中的作用一直坚定不移,然而,在这段漫长的时间里,她在生命和物质方面所遭受的损失已经超过了收益。与塔利班和和解进程、阿富汗难民、过境贸易和巴基斯坦-阿富汗边界有关的问题主导了公共话语、叙述,因此也主导了巴基斯坦和阿富汗之间的关系。所有这些问题都涉及巴基斯坦的外交和安全政策、经济和国内稳定。这些问题相互联系,使两国关系陷入恶性循环。在这个阶段,精明地管理这些刺激因素,并逐渐建立一种互信,让双方都能产生同理心,这将是一个不错的选择。巴阿关系的红线是建立一个友好的阿富汗,或者至少是一个中立的阿富汗。这不仅将稳定巴基斯坦国内局势,而且将使巴印两国在未来共同努力改善双边关系。采取基于现有现实的政策,并在该领域内确定优先事项,将最有利于巴基斯坦的利益。影响力可以通过软实力、相互合作和加强共同领域的前景来维持或建立。应该尽量减少媒体外交。边境管理问题具有重要意义。一旦巴基斯坦在物理上和政治上建立了其在国际边界上的权力,局势可能会逐渐向巴基斯坦倾斜,尽管目前这是一个棘手的问题。
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Post 9/11 Dimensions of Pak-Afghan Relations
Afghanistan has assumed a paramount leverage on and pivotal position in the Central and South Asian region due to its undeniably geo-political uniqueness. In this region Pakistan being the immediate bordering country get immediate fall out of any turmoil within Afghanistan. The three decades long war in Afghanistan has changed entirely the internal and external security parameters and paradigm in Pakistan. Since 9/11 Pakistan role in the war on terror has been unflinching, nonetheless, the losses in terms of human lives and material suffered by her during this long period have exceeded the gains. The questions related to Taliban and reconciliation process, Afghan refugees, transit trade and Pakistan-Afghanistan border have dominated public discourses, narratives and therefore, relationship between Pakistan and Afghanistan. All these issues have dimensions in the realm of Pakistan’s foreign and security policies, economy and internal stability. These problems are interlinked and have therefore, locked the relations in a vicious cycle. At this stage, managing these irritants shrewdly and gradually building the kind of mutual trust that would allow empathy to develop on both sides would be a good option. Scarlet thread in Pak-Afghan relationship is to have a friendly Afghanistan or at least, a neutral Afghanistan. It will not only stabilize Pakistan’s internal situation but in future enable Pakistan and India work together to improve bilateral relations. Pakistan’s interests would be best served by adopting policies grounded in the existing realities and determining priorities within that realm. Influence can be sustained or built through soft power, mutual cooperation and an outlook that would strengthen areas of convergence. Diplomacy through media should be minimized. Border management issues have great significance. Once Pakistan has physically and politically established its writ over the international borders, situation could incrementally tilt in Pakistan’s favour, though, this is, presently, a tricky issue.
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