为什么今天的系统理论不能应对全球环境或海洋系统的灾难和危机?

R. Jasinevicius
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引用次数: 2

摘要

这个演讲是基于世界著名的系统理论科学家和研究人员对我们地球上的全球性事件的第一反应(从当代银行危机开始,以全球环境和海洋系统灾难结束,这些灾难最近已经动摇或仍有可能动摇整个世界)。对事件的评论涉及政治、社会和系统控制理论方面。将世界海洋生态系统、经济和社会系统的全球管理视为SoC,即以利益最大化为目标而不是以合理效率为目标的群落系统。这种方法是建立在全球贪婪的某种制度化的基础上的。另一方面,环境和海洋系统被认为是一组相互依存的全球信息和控制系统的随机集合,被认为是SoS -系统的系统,没有工具(既不是基本理论也不是工具)能够应付当前的危急情况。古老的、发展完善的控制理论及其众所周知的稳定性标准,并不足以适应当代世界的现实现象。提出了一种新的方法,以适应当代世界系统体系中的全球安排和行动者的相互依存:1)考虑一种新的信息类型-模糊知识数据;2)建立一个扩展的独立时空世界坐标系;3)在理论中引入并包含了一个非常重要的特征,比如我们世界结构的各向异性。这三个方面一直被一般系统论所忽视,这种忽视导致了社会在危机面前的科学无能。所以,一般系统理论的一个新分支正在发展中;它的名字- GFSCT -一般模糊系统控制理论,它是考虑到所有上述三种方法。在本报告中还强调,新的理论以及国际社会的政治意愿对我们的未来至关重要。
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Why today's systems theory can't cope with global environmental or marine systems catastrophes and crises?
This presentation is based on the first reaction of the world famous systems theory scientists and researchers to the global events on our earth (starting with the contemporary banking crisis and finishing with the global environmental and marine systems catastrophes, which recently have shaken or are still threatening to shake the whole world). Comments on the events dealt with political, social and systems control theory aspects. The global management of world marine ecosystem, economy and social system was considered as SoC — the system of communities aiming a maximal profit instead of rational efficiency. Such an approach was based on a certain institutionalization of a global greed. On the other hand the environmental and marine systems are presented as a stochastic set of interdependent world-vide information and control systems considered as SoS — the system of systems, having no instruments (neither fundamental theory nor tools) able to cope with the current critical situation. The old and perfectly developed control theory with its well-known stability criteria is not adequate to the phenomenon of the contemporary world's realities. New approach is proposed, adequate to the global arrangements and interdependence of actors in the contemporary world system of systems: 1) consideration of a new type of information — fuzzy knowledge-based data; 2) development of an extended independent space-time world coordinate system; 3) introduction and inclusion into the theory of a very important feature, such as anisotropy of our world's structure. These three aspects up till now were neglected by the general systems theory, and this negligence coused society's scientific impotence in the presence of the crises. So, a new branch of general systems theory is under development now; its name — GFSCT — general fuzzy systems control theory, and it is taking into account all three approaches mentioned above. In this presentation is emphasized also that the new theory, as well as world's community political will, is crucial for our future.
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