关于人工智能对国际贸易影响的早期后果

Sandesh Achar
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引用次数: 6

摘要

由于人们对人工智能对经济和社会的影响越来越感兴趣,这项新技术对国际贸易的影响最近受到了广泛关注。鉴于目前世界主要国家对全球化优势的重新评估,重点继续放在管理国际贸易的政策上。了解和预测未来的贸易模式是国家内部和国家之间决策的高度优先事项。这是因为贸易显著影响就业、生产、定价和工资。尽管传统的经济模型旨在成为准确的预测者,但我们研究了人工智能(AI)技术可以产生更准确的预测和关联的前景。此外,我们还描述了上下文人工智能算法,可用于分析因贸易战和流行病等异常事件而中断的贸易模式。能够预测、推荐和分类政策的算法的燃料只能由开放政府数据提供;因此,访问这些数据是至关重要的。为这项研究收集的资料描述了通常与国际贸易交易有关的经济因素。关联规则用于对商品对进行分组。最后,提出了模型及其结果,然后根据其预测和关联的质量对其进行评估,并提供了示例政策含义。本文探讨了人工智能技术与国际贸易之间的相互联系,并概述了希望充分利用人工智能技术潜力的政策制定者的关键贸易政策考虑因素。具体来说,本文关注的是中国发展人工智能(AI)产业的努力。
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Early Consequences Regarding the Impact of Artificial Intelligence on International Trade
The consequences of this new technology for international trade have recently garnered much attention, thanks to the growing interest in AI's effects on the economy and society. Given the current reevaluation of the advantages of globalization by the world's leading nations, the focus continues to be on the policies governing international commerce. Understanding and forecasting future trade patterns is a high priority for decision-making within and between countries. This is because trade significantly impacts employment, production, pricing, and wages. Even though conventional economic models are intended to be accurate forecasters, we investigate the prospect that Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques can produce more accurate predictions and associations. In addition, we describe contextual AI algorithms that can be used to analyze trade patterns disrupted by unusual occurrences such as trade wars and pandemics. The fuel for the algorithms that can forecast, recommend, and categorize policies can only be provided by open-government data; therefore, having access to these data is vital. The information gathered for this study describes the economic elements usually linked with international trade transactions. Association Rules are used for grouping commodity pairs. Finally, models and their results are presented and then appraised in terms of the quality of their predictions and associations, with example policy implications provided. This paper explores the interlinkages between AI technologies and international trade and outlines key trade policy considerations for policymakers looking to harness AI technologies' full potential. Specifically, the paper focuses on China's efforts to develop its artificial intelligence (AI) industry.
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