Short-term active distribution network operation under uncertainty

Electrical distribution systems need to integrate more and more renewable energy generation in their network. Since networks cannot be quickly upgraded at a low cost, new generators are connected to the network under non-firm access contracts. These contracts allow distribution system operators to specify dynamic access limits according to a given regulatory policy, e.g. "last-in, first-out" or a similar policy. Due to operational delays, access limits must be communicated before realtime, e.g. ten minutes ahead. This paper presents an operational method to compute these dynamic access limits using correlated probabilistic forecasts of power consumption and production processes. The method is illustrated on a test-case based on real data where no additional production would be allowed under firm access. Results show that the method allows to safely integrate additional production capacity while limiting congestion events, provided that efficient probabilistic forecasts able to anticipate sudden and important changes are available.