巴西东北部阿拉戈斯州雷暴事件的天气学和热力学分析

Lucas Carvalho, N. M. da Silva, N. Fedorova, V. Levit
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引用次数: 1

摘要

对巴西北部阿拉戈斯州14次雷暴事件进行了天气学和热力学分析。热力分析是基于垂直剖面,提前48小时预测。利用HYSPLIT模型的10个标准层的气流轨迹进行预报。为了更好地评价垂直剖面的质量,应用了不稳定性指标。认为地形对雷暴的增强有影响。这是通过对每个病例的潜在和潜在不稳定性(IP和IL)进行评估得出的。详细分析了2014年4月6日发生的两起事件。使用的数据如下:(1)巴西气象部门(REDEMET);(2)热带降雨测量任务(TRMM);(3)欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)和(4)国家环境预报中心(NCEP)的再分析数据;(5)巴西预报和气候研究中心(CPTEC)的探空、GOES和METEOSAT卫星图像;(6) HYSPLIT模型;(7)阿拉戈斯环境和水资源部(SEMARH);(8)阿拉戈斯州规划和经济发展部(SEPLANDE),预测剖面在48小时前是令人满意的。IP和IL对CAPE+的增加负有2.7倍的责任。由于附近有冷锋,因此确定了位于气候位置以南的ITCZ的影响。南大西洋高空强槽与雷暴发展有关。
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Synoptic and thermodynamic analysis of thunderstorms events in the Alagoas State, the Northeast Brazil
Synoptic and thermodynamic analysis of 14 thunderstorm events in the Alagoas State (Northern Brazil) was elaborated. Thermodynamic analysis was based on the vertical profiles, forecasted with 48 hours in advance. Forecast was made by the air parcel trajectories from the HYSPLIT model in 10 standard levels. Instability indexes were applied in order to better evaluate the quality of the vertical profiles. It was considered the topography influences on the intensification of the thunderstorms. That was made by evaluation of the Potential and Latent Instabilities (IP and IL), for each case. An analysis of two events on April 6, 2014 was presented in details. The following data were used: (1) Brazilian Meteorological Department (REDEMET); (2) Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM); (3) Reanalysis data from The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and (4) National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP); Sounding and GOES and METEOSAT satellite images from (5) Brazilian Forecast and Climate Study Center (CPTEC); (6) HYSPLIT model; (7) The Environment and Water Resources Department of Alagoas (SEMARH); (8) Planning and Economic Developing Department of Alagoas (SEPLANDE), The Forecasted profiles were satisfactory up to 48h in advance. The IP and IL were responsible for an increase of the CAPE+ of 2.7 times. It was identified an influence of the ITCZ, which was located to the South of the climatological location, because of a cold front nearby. Strong trough over the South Atlantic at the high levels was associated with the thunderstorm development.
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