通过使用经过验证的学习来改进过程模拟器

Jürgen Münch
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引用次数: 9

摘要

软件过程仿真已经发展成为分析软件过程行为的成熟技术:系统地开发模拟器的方法已经存在,建模和执行的工具已经可用,几乎所有类型的过程的模型已经创建,并且已经收集了许多模型准确性的经验证据。然而,软件过程模拟仍在等待突破性的成功。虽然仿真技术已经在许多领域成功地建立起来,但是软件过程仿真在软件工程实践中并没有得到广泛的应用。我们应该转向还是坚持?本文认为有必要使用一种严格的方法来发现过程模拟器的“客户”,并找出他们认为有价值的东西。实现这一目标的一种机制是应用所谓的“有效学习”,即通过系统地测试价值假设,应用一种可操作的学习方法来识别哪些是相关的,哪些是不相关的。这样做可以保证模拟工作可以集中在价值创造上,并且可以避免错误的途径。除此之外,本文还概述了在实践中应用模拟器时需要考虑的先决条件和经验教训,以及使软件过程模拟成功的即将到来的机会。
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Evolving process simulators by using validated learning
Software process simulation has been evolved towards a mature technology for analyzing the behavior of software processes: Methods for systematically developing simulators exist, tools for modeling and execution are available, models for nearly all kinds of processes have been created, and empirical evidence on the accuracy of many models has been gathered. However, software process simulation is still waiting for a breakthrough success. Although simulation is a technology that has been successfully established in many domains, software process simulation is not widely used in software engineering practice. Should we pivot or persevere? This article argues that it is necessary to use a rigorous approach for discovering “customers” of process simulators and finding out what they consider to be value. One mechanism to do this is to apply so-called “validated learning”, i.e., to apply an actionable learning approach to identify what is relevant and what is irrelevant by systematically testing value hypotheses. Doing this promises that simulation efforts can be concentrated on value-creation and that wrong avenues can be avoided. Besides this, the article sketched prerequisites and lessons learned that need to be considered when applying simulators in practice as well as upcoming opportunities for making software process simulation a success.
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