2019冠状病毒病大流行期间俄罗斯人对移民的态度(2020-2021)

N. Voronina
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摘要

作者的目的是确定在冠状病毒大流行期间俄罗斯人对移民态度变化的存在、性质和因素。据透露,这一流行病加剧了人口自然减少的问题,移徙流量减少,从而减少了移民涌入对人口自然减少的补偿。一方面,这可能加剧东道国社会对移民的负面态度,加剧新冠肺炎疫情对社会的负面影响。另一方面,减少与移民的“接触”可以将对移民的看法转变为更尖锐的问题,从而使态度更加中立。作为分析的经验基础,使用了2018年欧洲社会调查的数据(用于与大流行前对移民的态度水平进行比较),以及俄罗斯科学院联邦科学研究中心比较政治研究部2020-2021年的数据。分析结果表明,俄罗斯人对移民给该国经济、文化和日常生活带来的变化的评价主要是消极的。在研究期间,对经济后果的评估变得更加中立,对国家日常生活后果的看法实际上没有改变,但对文化后果的评估变得更加消极。回归分析表明,在大流行病期间,俄罗斯人对移民持消极态度的预测因素是:认识到种族间关系问题的严重性和访客的涌入、失业和青年和青少年教育问题的增加、违反公共行为准则以及男女之间的紧张关系、定居类型(定居规模越大,态度越消极)。结果证明,积极的预测因素是机构信任水平、年龄(越年轻,态度越好),以及对俄罗斯人口下降和低生育率问题严重性的认识。
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Attitude of Russians towards immigrants during the COVID-19 pandemic (2020–2021)
The objective of the author was to identify the presence, nature and factors of changes in the attitude of Russians towards immigrants during the coronavirus pandemic. It was revealed that the pandemic exacerbated the problems of natural population decline, and migration flows decreased, thereby reducing the compensation for natural decline by the influx of immigrants. On the one hand, this could increase the negative attitude of the host society towards immigrants, exacerbating the negative consequences of the coronavirus for society. On the other hand, the reduced “contact” with immigrants could switch the perception from immigrants to more acute problems, thereby making the attitude more neutral. For the empirical basis of the analysis the data of the European Social Survey for 2018 were used (for comparison with the pre-pandemic level of attitudes towards immigrants), as well as data from the Department for Comparative Political Studies of the Federal Scientific Research Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences (FCTAS RAS) for 2020–2021. The results of the analysis demonstrated that the assessment of the changes brought by immigrants to the economy, culture and everyday life of the country remains predominantly negative among Russians. The assessment of the consequences for the economy became more neutral during the study period, the perception of the consequences for the daily life of the country practically did not change, but the assessment of the consequences for culture became more negative. The regression analysis showed that the predictors of the negative attitude of Russians towards immigrants during the pandemic were: the perception of the acuteness of the problems of interethnic relations and the influx of visitors, the problem of increasing unemployment and the education of youth and adolescents, violation of the norms of public behaviour, as well as tension between men and women, the type of settlement (the larger it is, the more negative the attitude). Positive predictors turned out to be the level of institutional trust, age (the younger, the better the attitude), as well as awareness of the severity of the problem of population decline and low fertility in Russia.
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