Cenários futuros para a vitivinicultura em Jundiaí, estado de São Paulo: perspectivas para a produção de vinho artesanal.

The municipality of Jundiaí has held the leading position in São Paulo wine production since the arrival of Italian immigrants around 1930 until 2008 when the amount of grapes grown began to fall. In view of this falling production, some industry stakeholders began to mobilize in an attempt to reverse the picture. One of the results of this mobilization was the conduction of the “São Paulo Vitiviniculture Census” held in 2009. Several factors seem to have contributed to the attempt to resume the growth of São Paulo's wine activity not having achieved the expected success for Jundiaí. Ten years after the accomplishment of São Paulo Vitiviniculture Census, in view of the apparent low performance of the sector in the State of São Paulo and even in the Brazilian context, this paper aims to portray the results of research carried out presenting considerations about main factors that, to Jundiaí's winemaker own eyes, are crucial in their decision to continue or not with family inherited activity and, based on these factors, offer alternative scenarios for the sector over a 15-year horizon, so that such data may be used to support formulation of public policies aimed at this traditional agricultural activity of the state of São Paulo.