TESTING STELLA DYNAMIC MODELING PACKAGE FOR THREATENED PEREGRINE FALCON POPULATION ASSESSMENT

The Peregrine Falcon (Falco peregrinus) is the world's most widely distributed avian predator, which also inhabits various natural ecosystems of Armenia. In the past, the Peregrines faced a dramatic decline in the mid-20th century being affected by pesticides used in agriculture and forestry. Today, in Armenia, the species is rather vulnerable from the pollution of mining industry, municipal dumps, pollution by pesticides, and potentially, from illegal trade for falconry, therefore its population needs proper assessment. Population modeling is one of the novel and precise assessment methods, which can serve for more effective species conservation. The existing estimation of Peregrine’s population in Armenia was not based on a comprehensive model, which considers such aspects as food sources, potential risks, and actual threats. Thus, in our study, we have developed and tested a model, which includes the following parameters that potentially can impact the population’s growth and reduction: nest competitors, food competitors, potential prey species, juvenile predators, poachers, and pesticides used to manage forest pests. Modeling of Peregrine’s population in Armenia was conducted using Euler’s method in frames of the STELLA package. The model demonstrated a decrease of Peregrine Falcons’ population in the south of Syunik with its potential vanishing in the next 25 years. The field observations confirmed the predicted decline in some extent.