估计(POGE-G)分布参数及其在埃及死亡率中的应用

A. Mohamed, A. Elghany, Gamalat Elgabry
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文考虑幂奇广义指数- gompertz (POGE-G)分布,该分布能够用生命表计算死亡率(失效率)。基于PPOGE-G分布的模拟数据,研究了经典方法和贝叶斯方法下的参数估计问题。在这方面,我们得到了误差平方损失函数下的最大似然估计(ML)、最大间距积(MPS)和贝叶斯估计。我们还计算了95%渐近置信区间和最高后验密度区间估计。将进行蒙特卡罗仿真来研究和比较各种提出的估计器的性能(仿真研究表明MPS估计的性能优于MLE估计,贝叶斯估计的性能也优于MLE估计)。最后,根据公共动员和统计中央机构(2019年2月)从这一应用中介绍的书籍,应用了2017-2052年期间阿拉伯埃及共和国未来人口总数预测的实际数据,可以说,这种分布可以应用于死亡率数据集。本文也可推广到渐进式滤波采样方案的设计,并可考虑其它滤波方案。
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Estimating the Parameters of (POGE-G) Distribution and Its Application to Egyptian Mortality Rates
In this paper, we consider power odd generalized exponential-Gompertz (POGE-G) distribution which is capable of life tables to calculate death rates (failure). Based on simulated data from the PPOGE-G distribution, we consider the problem of estimation of parameters under classical approaches and Bayesian approaches. In this regard, we obtain maximum likelihood (ML) estimates, maximum product of spacing (MPS) and Bayes estimates under squared error loss function. We also compute 95% asymptotic confidence interval and highest posterior density interval estimates. The Monte Carlo simulation will be conduct to study and compare the performance of the various proposed estimators (simulation study indicates that the performance of MPS estimates is better MLE estimates and the performance of Bayes estimates is also better). Finally, application of a real data from the projections of the future population for the total of the Egyptian Arabic Republic for the period 2017-2052, depending on the book which introduced from the central agency for public mobilization and statistics in Feb (2019) from this application it could be said that this distributions can be applied to mortality rate data set. The present paper can also be extended to design of progressive censoring sampling plan and other censoring schemes can also be considered.
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