用统计方法评价北半球气温变化的统计意义

S. Morozova, Ekaterina S. Diyanova, Elisaveta S. Diyanova, Valeria D. Nikishova, Yulia Yu. Kotova, Ekaterina Yu. Popkova
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引用次数: 0

摘要

对北半球近地表气温的变化进行了分析。为了确定违反序列同质性的年份,使用Kolmogorov统计量应用逐步趋势法。结果表明,所确定的均质气候间隔与地球气候系统状态的自然气候周期基本对应。均一气候区温度变化的显著性评估采用置信区间法,采用学生t检验。根据已证实的统计显著性,得出了北半球地表气温变化的气候意义的结论。
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Evaluating the statistical significance of air temperature changes in the Northern hemisphere by statistical methods
The analysis of changes in the near-surface air temperature of the Northern Hemisphere is given. To identify years in which there was a violation of the series homogeneity, the stepwise trend method was applied using Kolmogorov statistics. It is shown that the identified homogeneous climatic intervals basically correspond to the natural climatic periods of the state of the Earth’s climate system. The assessment of the significance of temperature changes in homogeneous climatic areas was carried out by the method of confidence intervals using Student’s t-test. Based on the confirmed statistical significance, the conclusion is made about the climatic significance of changes in the surface air temperature of the Northern Hemisphere.
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