哈萨克斯坦共和国国家银行的通货膨胀目标

N. V. Jangarasheva, Assel Shaimerdenova, D.Е. Soltangazy, A.M. Nurgalieva, A. D. Chelekbay
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摘要

本文介绍了在中期实现稳定的通货膨胀水平的结果,这是可持续经济增长的一个基本因素。自2015年以来,国家银行一直在通货膨胀目标制下推行货币政策,坚戈浮动汇率,因此通货膨胀目标制是一种以物价稳定为最终目标的货币政策制度。在通货膨胀目标制中,利率渠道发挥着重要作用,通过这一渠道,中央银行的利率政策影响市场利率,并进一步转移到人口的消费、储蓄和投资行为,最终影响通货膨胀过程。分析表明,哈萨克斯坦通货膨胀进程的动态很大程度上受到进口商品的影响,而进口商品在消费中所占的份额几年来没有改变。因此,在过去5年中,进口在消费品消费中所占的份额平均在33-42%之间波动。进口商品在非食品消费中所占比例最大,从2015年的63%上升到2019年的93%。与此同时,进口占食品消费的比例从2015年的16%上升到2019年的18%。
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INFLATION TARGETING OF THE NATIONAL BANK OF THE REPUBLIC OF KAZAKHSTAN
The article presents the results of achieving a stable level of inflation in the medium term, which is a fundamental factor in sustainable economic growth. Since 2015, the National Bank has been pursuing monetary policy in the inflation targeting regime with a floating tenge exchange rate, hence inflation targeting is a monetary policy regime in which price stability is the ultimate goal. An important role in the inflation targeting regime is played by the interest rate channel, through which the central bank's interest rate policy affects market rates with further transfer to the consumer, savings, and investment behavior of the population, and, ultimately, to inflationary processes. The analysis shows that the dynamics of inflationary processes in Kazakhstan is significantly influenced by the import of goods, the share of which in consumption has not changed for several years. Thus, over the past 5 years, the share of imports in the consumption of consumer goods has fluctuated on average within 33-42%. The largest number of imported goods can be traced in the consumption of non-food products, the share of which increased from 63% in 2015 to 93% in 2019. At the same time, the share of imports in food consumption increased from 16% in 2015 to 18% in 2019.
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