Sector analysis of dairy sector in the balstic states using AGMEMOD model baseline validation

. Milk is one of the most strategically important food products for the entire world and the dairy industry is one of the most important agricultural industries apart from grain production in the Baltic States - Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania. In general, the dairy sector is very dynamic and responds to various factors (for example, total number of dairy farms, average milk yield per cow, milk price). In view of this fact, it is important to prepare and review the sector’s development outlook. Simulation models are often used in the preparation of sector outlooks. There are several simulation models that are used for projecting the agricultural sector (including dairy sector) in the European Union and one of them is the AGMEMOD model. The AGMEMOD model is an econometric and dynamic model with which it is possible to make projections and simulations to assess agricultural support instruments, programs, and policies at the European Union level and at individual Member States level. The regional focus of the AGMEMOD model is built on its representation of the agricultural commodities in each individual European Union member state and neighboring candidate, and other countries. AGMEMOD covers the most important agricultural activities of each country in detail. The purpose of this study is to analyse the dairy sector (including factors affecting the sector) in the Baltic States and using the AGMEMOD model. To reach these purposes, research tasks were set which helped analyse the key factors of the dairy sector in the Baltic States and the operation of the AGMEMOD model.