A SİMULATİON STUDY TO DETERMİNE THE RESPONSE OF MORKARAMAN SHEEP RAİSED İN CENTRAL AND EASTERN ANATOLİAN TO CHANGİNG CLİMATE CONDİTİONS

Climate change has begun to affect the whole world seriously. If necessary and sufficient measures are not taken, it seems possible that much bigger disasters will occur in the future. The agricultural sector, which forms the basis of food production, is affected the most and rapidly by this change. Significant decreases have been observed in plant and animal production. Our primary purpose is to determine the reproductive potential of animals and the amount of resistance to climate change and evaluate the economic situation. The study was carried out within ten years, covering 2009-2019. In this study, morkaraman sheep bred in the province of Kırşehir in the Central Anatolian Region and the province of Bingöl in the Eastern Anatolia Region is considered material in Turkey. In order to obtain the data used, a total of 296 sheep, 145 sheep in the Eastern Anatolia Region and 151 sheep in the Central Anatolia Region, were evaluated. The simulation study was carried out using the polygenic model. The variables examined are as follows; Lactation time (days), Average daily milk yield (ml), Daily amount of feed consumed for 1 kg live weight (kg), Yield (%), Incidence of Mastitis, Daily oil yield (g/day), Daily protein yield ( g/day), Fertility (%), Fertility time (productivity) (Days), Change in milk yield for each degree above 22 °C and Protein change for each degree above 22 °C (g/°C /day). As a result, in a one-degree increase in temperature, the highest negative effect is seen in the average daily milk yield and lactation period. Fertility and the amount of feed consumed per kg of weight had the lowest value. The preliminary work to be done with the work is that the selection of animals that are resistant/tolerant to climate change should be made. Keywords: Genotypic effects, climatic change, morkaraman sheep, simulation, sustainability.