双车速度对交叉口碰撞风险的非参数影响建模:利用二维加性逻辑回归超越单变量方法

IF 2.4 3区 工程技术 Q3 TRANSPORTATION Journal of Transportation Safety & Security Pub Date : 2023-09-26 DOI:10.1080/19439962.2023.2250307
Pengfei Cui, Xiaobao Yang, Lu Ma, Chaoxu Mu
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引用次数: 0

摘要

摘要了解车速与持续危及生命的伤害风险之间的关系已经引起了人们的持续关注。这项研究旨在深入了解双车速度与十字路口严重伤害风险之间的关系。研究人员检查了美国碰撞报告抽样系统(CRSS)中2016-2018年发生在十字路口的碰撞数据。我们提出了一个更通用的框架,允许碰撞风险同时与双车速度的通用二维变量联系起来,而不是根据现有文献中根据碰撞类型计算的一维冲击速度变量。结果表明:中速区迎面碰撞严重伤害风险主要受车速较快车辆的影响,与车速较慢车辆的影响不大;更重要的是,我们发现两车速度与碰撞风险之间的边际关系在角度碰撞和后碰撞中是非单调的。最后,提出降低交叉口碰撞风险的适当措施,包括提醒驾驶员不要以极低的速度通过交叉口,协助驾驶员以中速进行应急响应,警告驾驶员不要以极高的速度行驶。关键词:双车速度严重伤害风险交叉口碰撞二维非参数效应披露声明作者未报告潜在利益冲突。注1薄板样条是平滑样条的一种形式,在可视化连续预测变量和响应变量之间的复杂关系方面很有用(Hutchinson, Citation1998)。它们的多用途特性使其特别适合于评估两个连续预测因子对单一结果的集体影响,因为它们能够捕获多维模式(Pedersen等人,Citation2019)。本研究受国家自然科学基金重点项目资助(No. 1);国家留学基金委资助项目(No.202307090082)。
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Modeling non-parametric effects of two-vehicle speed on crash risk at intersections: Leveraging two-dimensional additive logistic regression beyond univariable approach
AbstractUnderstanding the relationship between vehicle speed and the risk of sustaining a life-threatening injury has garnered continual attention. This study seeks to gain deep insight into the relationship between two-vehicle speeds and the risk of serious injury at intersections. The 2016–2018 crash data that occurred at intersections from the US Crash Report Sampling System (CRSS) were examined. We present a more general framework that allows the crash risk to be simultaneously linked to a universal two-dimensional variable of two-vehicle speeds, instead of the one-dimensional variable of impact speed calculated according to crash types in the existing literature. The results indicate that the risk of serious injury for head-on crashes in the medium-speed zone is mainly influenced by the faster vehicle although having little relation to the slower vehicle. More importantly, we find that the marginal relationship between the two-vehicle speeds and the crash risk is non-monotonic for angle and rear crashes. Finally, appropriate measures are suggested to reduce the crash risk at intersections, including alerting the driver not to cross intersections at exceedingly low speed, assisting the driver in making an emergency response at a medium speed, and warning the driver not to operate at a very high speed.Keywords: two-vehicle speedsrisk of serious injuryintersection crashtwo-dimensionalnon-parametric effect Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Notes1 Thin plate splines are a form of smoothing spline that finds utility in visualizing intricate relationships between continuous predictors and response variables (Hutchinson, Citation1998). Their versatile nature makes them particularly suitable for assessing the collective impact of two continuous predictors on a singular outcome, owing to their ability to capture multidimensional patterns (Pedersen et al., Citation2019).Additional informationFundingThis research was supported by the Key Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No. 62333016) and China Scholarship Council (No.202307090082).
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CiteScore
6.00
自引率
15.40%
发文量
38
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