探索人类世的不同未来

IF 15.5 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Annual Review of Environment and Resources Pub Date : 2023-11-13 DOI:10.1146/annurev-environ-112321-095011
Steven Cork, Carla Alexandra, Jorge G. Alvarez-Romero, Elena M. Bennett, Marta Berbés-Blázquez, Erin Bohensky, Barbara Bok, Robert Costanza, Shizuka Hashimoto, Rosemary Hill, Sohail Inayatullah, Kasper Kok, Jan J. Kuiper, Magnus Moglia, Laura Pereira, Garry Peterson, Rebecca Weeks, Carina Wyborn
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引用次数: 5

摘要

当前人类世时代提出的许多挑战要求人类与地球其他地区的关系发生根本性的转变。要实现这样的转变,人类需要提高对现状的理解,增强想象通往更美好未来的道路的能力。我们回顾了在应对这些挑战方面的进展,这些挑战采用了对多种可能的未来(未来思维)的系统和结构化思考。在过去的70年里,特别是在过去的20年里,对未来的思考方法已经帮助来自不同背景的人们对重要问题、潜在原因和通往乐观未来的途径达成了共识。最近的一个重点是激发想象力,以产生新的选择。未来思维在打破无益的社交成瘾和解决冲突方面的作用是关键的新兴话题。我们总结了社会对未来思考的认知、文化和制度限制,并得出结论,一旦理解,没有什么是不可克服的。
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Exploring Alternative Futures in the Anthropocene
Many challenges posed by the current Anthropocene epoch require fundamental transformations to humanity's relationships with the rest of the planet. Achieving such transformations requires that humanity improve its understanding of the current situation and enhance its ability to imagine pathways toward alternative, preferable futures. We review advances in addressing these challenges that employ systematic and structured thinking about multiple possible futures (futures-thinking). Over seven decades, especially the past two, approaches to futures-thinking have helped people from diverse backgrounds reach a common understanding of important issues, underlying causes, and pathways toward optimistic futures. A recent focus has been the stimulation of imagination to produce new options. The roles of futures-thinking in breaking unhelpful social addictions and in conflict resolution are key emerging topics. We summarize cognitive, cultural, and institutional constraints on the societal uptake of futures-thinking, concluding that none are insurmountable once understood.
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来源期刊
Annual Review of Environment and Resources
Annual Review of Environment and Resources 环境科学-环境科学
CiteScore
24.10
自引率
1.80%
发文量
33
审稿时长
>24 weeks
期刊介绍: The Annual Review of Environment and Resources, established in 1976, offers authoritative reviews on key environmental science and engineering topics. It covers various subjects, including ecology, conservation science, water and energy resources, atmosphere, oceans, climate change, agriculture, living resources, and the human dimensions of resource use and global change. The journal's recent transition from gated to open access through Annual Reviews' Subscribe to Open program, with all articles published under a CC BY license, enhances the dissemination of knowledge in the field.
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