Evaluating soil erosion and runoff dynamics in a humid subtropic, low stream order, southern plains watershed from cultivation and solar farm development

Much work has been done to understand and improve soil and water conservation where agriculture has driven land use intensification. Less is known about soil- and water-related impacts from intensification driven by solar farming, especially at watershed-scales. Here we employed Hydrologic Engineering Center's Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) to model Pond Creek, a rural watershed in Texas, USA. Land use is primarily crop cultivation and secondarily pasture for cattle grazing. Presently, several industrial-scale projects are planned to convert ≈15–30% of Pond Creek from agriculture to solar farms. The model was parameterized using public data sources and information from local stakeholders, then calibrated to several historical precipitation events. Experiments were conducted by varying precipitation depth, duration, and land uses: native vegetation pre-cultivation (control), cultivation (current), current conditions with 15% solar farm conversion (solar), and current conditions with 30% solar farm conversion (solar x2). Shifting to solar farming led to significant increases in cumulative sediment load (+12%–30%), with no significant differences in peak discharge rate changes (+0.38%–4%). Comparison to soil loss tolerance values showed current and solar treatment erosion rates exceeded tolerance values between 0.17 and 2.29 tons per hectare and all treatments were significantly different than the native treatment. We discuss high leverage strategies applicable to solar farm development sites as well as watersheds where they reside. Accelerating demand for land for renewable energy such as solar farming warrants greater attention from the soil and water conservation community to anticipate and mitigate impacts across landscapes.