中国人口老龄化对碳排放的影响研究及对策分析

Yinuo Zang, Jianquan Guo
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摘要

本文基于改进的STIRPAT模型和隶属函数评价方法,探讨了中国人口老龄化程度与碳排放的关系,将人口老龄化分为趋势老龄化和完全老龄化两组进行回归调查,并进一步探讨了在国家和区域层面上的影响。结果表明:第一,在国家层面上,现阶段中国人口老龄化对碳排放具有抑制作用;其次,在老化程度上,影响是不同的,其中趋势老化对碳排放有负向影响,而完全老化对碳排放有正向影响,且长期呈倒“U”型关系。第三,在区域层面上,这些影响存在明显的区域差异。本研究有助于政府完善老龄化社会的相关应对策略。
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Research and Countermeasures Analysis on the Impact of Population Aging on Carbon Emissions in China
Based on the improved STIRPAT model and the affiliation function assessment method, this paper explores the relationship between population aging degrees and carbon emissions in China, divides the population aging into two groups of tendency aging and complete aging for regression investigation, and further explores the impact at the national and regional levels. The results show that, firstly, at the national level, population aging in China has an inhibitory effect on carbon emissions at the present stage. Secondly, at the degree of aging, the effects are different, among which tendency aging can negatively affect carbon emissions, while complete aging is positively affecting carbon emissions, and in the long term, the relationship shows an inverted "U" shape. Thirdly, at the regional level, there are obvious regional differences in these effects. This study helps the government to improve the relevant coping strategies for an aging society.
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