NIGERIA: COMPOSITE INDICATOR OF FOOD INSECURITY IN ITS CONFLICT AFFECTED REGIONS AND ITS DETERMINANTS. A HETEROSCEDASTICITY CONSISTENT TOBIT MODEL

Abstract: Conflicts constitute some negative influences on households’ economic activities. In Nigeria, the past few years have witnessed progressive crises in some states and the growing level of insecurity is affecting households’ economic livelihoods. This paper analyzed the determi nants of food insecurity indicator in conflict-affected regions in Nigeria. The data were collected in 2017 from 582 respondents in the North East, North-central, and South-South zones. The data were analyzed with Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and heteroscedasticity consistent Tobit regression. The results showed that in the combined data, the average number of days per week that respondents relied on less preferred food, limited food portions, and reduced the number of meal per day were 3.42, 2.68 and 2.33, respectively. The PCA was used to generate indicator of food insecurity, with North-East, Northcentral, and South-South zones having average indices of 0.16, -0.09 and -0.02, respectively. The Tobit regression results revealed that in the combined data, food insecurity was promoted by household size, urban residence and receipt of remittances, but reduced by unchanged income, credit purchase and reliance on food aid. In north central, food insecurity was promoted by receipt of remittances, but reduced by ability to grow own crops. In the north eastern zone, food insecurity was promoted by urban residence, income increased, and increase in food prices, but declined by income unchanged, and pension income. In the South-South zone, food insecurity was promoted by household size, urban residence and receipt of remittance income, but declined by credit purchase and unchanged income. It was concluded that addressing food insecurity among residents in conflict-affected areas requires preferential assistances to large families, urban residents, and those with high dependence on remittances. However, the promotion of initiatives for credit purchase, food aid the and ability to grow own crops are potentially able to reduce food insecurity. Keywords: Food insecurity, conflict, remittances, food aid, credit, Nigeria.