Analysis of annual power and electricity balance of hydro-thermal system in Yunnan province based on rolling dispatch with leading reservoir

Abstract Renewable energy penetration presents challenges for power systems, including unit reconfiguration, resource allocation, and potential electricity shortage. In Yunnan Province, where hydropower is a dominant energy source, annual power and electricity imbalance is a serious issue due to insufficient hydropower regulation capacity and less scheduling flexibility. To address these problems, a rolling dispatch method is proposed to connect medium- and long-term scheduling with short-term scheduling, providing hourly start-stop statuses and output plans for units throughout the year and effectively solving power imbalance issues. Additionally, an economic benefit and electricity shortage analysis of the Longpan leading reservoir in the Jinsha River Basin is conducted, resulting in a 13 billion kWh annual power generation increase and approximately 4 billion yuan in direct economic benefits, greatly improving Yunnan Province’s adjustment ability from dry seasons to wet seasons.