covid - 19后复苏期间的通货膨胀和分配:卡列基方法

IF 0.6 3区经济学 Q4 ECONOMICS Journal of Post Keynesian Economics Pub Date : 2023-10-02 DOI:10.1080/01603477.2023.2249431

Mark Setterfield

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引用次数: 3

摘要

13请注意，因此，关于工资份额的陈述等同于关于实际工资值的陈述，反之亦然，因为q n =0意味着ω的变化反映在v的相等比例变化中，反之亦然有关最近对通胀和通胀预期的传统观点的重申，请参见Binder和Kamdar (Citation2022);Weber等人(Citation2022)(但参见Rudd (Citation2022)的批评)。这里采取的立场是，一般来说，工人没有足够的议价能力将通胀预期完全纳入名义工资增长(尤其是在新自由主义时代)。这就排除了加速论者的假设。这并不意味着通胀预期无关紧要，但如上所述，在接下来的账户中，通胀预期并不被理解为后covid通胀结果的核心工人追求的工资份额，vW，相当于一个实际工资目标，假设q³=0。企业追求的工资份额，vF，可以在一个简单的加价定价方程中与加价目标值(τ f)相关联，形式为p=(1+τ)w/q，假设从这个方程可以得出τ=1 - vv，因此τ f =1 - vFvF.16当然，从企业遇到的需求条件到它们在随后的市场交易之前建立的管理价格，可能会有随后的反馈效应请注意，为了简单起见，vW被视为外生给定。然而，参见Setterfield和Lovejoy (Citation2006)关于工人愿望的内质性的讨论例如，参见Paternesi Meloni和Stirati (Citation2023)关于新自由主义时代制度变革和劳动力市场疲软对工资动态的贡献的最新证据。在极限情况下，如果雇主能够通过成功地利用政治机制(如增加H1B签证数量或终止延长失业救济金)来调整劳动力供应，而不是他们的超额需求抬高工资，从而调整劳动力供给量，制度化的闲置意味着劳动力市场拍卖市场条件的“终结”(Setterfield Citation2023, 281-282)图4描述了PC从PC1到PC2的平行移动。这就排除了一种可能性，即基于恐惧的收入政策也使个人电脑变得扁平化。例如，参见Setterfield和Blecker (Citation2022)的进一步讨论参见Ratner和Sim提出的“Kaleckian Phillips曲线”(Citation2022)，以及Lorenzoni和Werning提出的通货膨胀冲突模型(Citation2023)回想一下，在2021年4月至2022年5月的后疫情复苏的第二阶段，工资通胀压力不那么明显。正如Setterfield (Citation2022, 13)所指出的那样，这提醒我们美国经济中劳动力的持续结构性弱点，以及随之而来的有利于出现强劲且自我延续的工资-价格通胀螺旋的条件的缺乏根据塞特菲尔德(citation1997,84)的说法，临时或条件均衡指的是“由[…]系统内在的[某些]变化力量暂时停止所带来的一种静止状态…[并等待]随后由经济在历史时间内的顺序发展的内在力量重新定义”。参见Chick和Caserta (Citation1997, 225)，以及Gallo和Setterfield (Citation2022)对宏观动力学中这一概念的最新讨论读者可参阅附录A，了解此处描述的一次结束(但持续)冲击消散后的稳态结果分析读者再次参考附录A，对v正在经历的转变及其相关的稳态结果进行更全面的分析正如罗宾逊所指出的(引文1977,41)，通货膨胀(根据定义)是物价总水平的稳定增长，任何通货膨胀理论都应该适当地植根于价格理论参见Lavoie (citation, 2014, chapter。3)进一步讨论。考虑到加价与工资占收入的比例之间的联系，卡莱茨基将对公平考虑的关注扩展到了劳动力市场——这一扩展是本文核心的矛盾索赔通胀模型的基础。关于商品市场中持续普遍存在的公平考虑，值得注意的是《卫报》(the Guardian)最近对小企业的建议(“美国通胀不会消失”)。小企业必须提前计划，”《卫报》，2022年8月14日星期日(www.theguardian.com/business/2022/aug/14/us-inflation-prices-small-business):)“那么，如果你是一家小企业，该怎么办?你有区别地、小心翼翼地提高价格。这与消费者作为定价决策“参与者”的概念是一致的，因为定价行为的公平性很重要，因此(引申开来)价格动态Bivens (Citation2022)还表明，自2020年第一季度以来，单位劳动力成本对价格上涨的贡献不到8%，而1979年至2019年期间这一比例为61.8%。这就深入了解了本文在对covid - 19后复苏期间通货膨胀的解释中确定的三个通货膨胀压力来源中的两个的相对重要性韦伯和沃斯纳(Citation2023)提出的一个相关假设是，成本上升通过解决竞争企业之间的协调问题(而不是企业与其客户之间的协调行为)，允许价格上涨超过这些成本。这一论点也与管理定价理论相一致(如Hall和Hitch, Citation1939所阐述的那样)。然而，请注意，在以管理定价为特征的市场中，如果存在价格领导，则不需要增加成本来协调企业之间的行为，从而导致增加的利润。协调是由价格领导机构本身提供的注意，这里提到的延迟只是程度问题。因此，参见索耶(Citation2022, 1232-35)对过去四十年中将集中度与市场力量增强和利润率提高联系起来的证据进行的调查“通货膨胀和叙事的力量”，《纽约时报》，2022.25年1月31日。这些政策通常以在通货膨胀不可避免地恶化之前消除通货膨胀的必要性为理由。但正如Marglin (Citation2021, 769)所指出的，“我从来没有读到过对通胀就像怀孕这一论点的令人信服的辩护:不可能有一点点这样的事情，最初适度的通货膨胀率，如果不被扼杀在萌芽状态，就会升级为恶性通货膨胀”。Charles, Bastian和Marie (Citation2021)提供了一种与本文中Kaleckian方法一致的通货膨胀分析，该方法描述了离散的通货膨胀“体制”以及它们之间没有任何不可避免的运动。本文作者mark Setterfield是新社会研究学院经济系的经济学教授。主要研究方向为后凯恩斯增长理论、宏观经济稳定政策、宏观经济学路径依赖;电子邮件mark.setterfield@newschool.edu。本文的早期版本于2022年9月15日在巴黎孔多塞校区举行的“当前通胀激增的异端观点”研讨会上发表，并于2023年2月23日至26日在纽约举行的东方经济协会会议上发表。我要感谢研讨会和会议的参与者(特别是Antonella Palumbo、Carlos Pinkusfeld、Pablo Pastor y Camarasa和Tom Michl)，特别是两位匿名的裁判，感谢他们的有益评论。任何剩下的错误都是我自己的。

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Inflation and distribution during the post-COVID recovery: a Kaleckian approach

Abstract The early stages of recovery from the recession induced by the COVID-19 pandemic were accompanied by a marked increase in inflation in the US and elsewhere. Much has been made of this outcome, and the economic distress associated with it, in popular discussion of the economy. This paper provides a Kaleckian conflicting-claims analysis of inflation during the post-COVID recovery, that distinguishes between rising wages, pandemic-related supply shocks, and corporate price-setting behavior as sources of inflationary pressure. A key conclusion that arises from the co-determination of inflation and distributional outcomes in the Kaleckian framework is that distributional developments that have further disadvantaged working households, rather than inflation per se, are the chief source of recent economic distress – and should be the chief cause for concern among policy makers.

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来源期刊

Journal of Post Keynesian Economics ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

1.70

自引率

10.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Journal of Post Keynesian Economics is a scholarly journal of innovative theoretical and empirical work that sheds fresh light on contemporary economic problems. It is committed to the principle that cumulative development of economic theory is only possible when the theory is continuously subjected to scrutiny in terms of its ability both to explain the real world and to provide a reliable guide to public policy.