全球经济“完美风暴”背景下的粮食安全

Ganna V. Duginets, Oleksander V. Generalov, Yaroslav I. Verba
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引用次数: 0

摘要

这项研究的相关性在于,俄罗斯在2022年2月24日的全面入侵和正在进行的乌克兰战争增加了世界各地粮食安全的脆弱性,给大流行后时期本已动荡的市场带来了新的问题。这项研究的目的是研究全球经济中的“完美风暴”对粮食安全的影响,并确定减轻新出现的威胁的方向。事实证明,现有的粮食安全危机是由多种因素造成的,也需要恢复全球储备。如果乌克兰能够恢复其在全球粮食市场上的作用,这一进程将大大加快。然而,战争仍在继续,这继续对生产产生负面影响,并对粮食安全产生不确定性。根据所进行的分析结果,确定粮食安全领域的国际组织与政府机构的互动是解决稳定粮食安全水平问题的一个非常重要的因素。当然,并非所有潜在威胁都可以预测,如果它们是自然的、地缘政治的或经济性质的,但粮农组织和类似组织与分析协会的互动可以有助于部分解决这一问题。事实证明,粮食部门的转型应该具有包容性,确保其所有行为体(例如,政府、国际组织、公司、农民等)积极参与制定和实施有针对性的措施。此外,这一转变还与减少对若干出口国的依赖并以当地作物取代玉米和小麦的政策的执行以及旨在建立以季节性产品为基础的短供应链网络的国内粮食系统的发展有关。这将使我们有可能在中期内减轻全球经济中的粮食安全风险。
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Food Security in the Context of the «Perfect Storm» in the Global Economy
The relevance of the study is due to the fact that the full-scale Russian invasion on February 24, 2022 and the ongoing war on Ukraine increased food security vulnerabilities around the world, creating new problems for the already volatile markets of the post-pandemic period. The purpose of the study is to examine the impact of the «perfect storm» in the global economy on food security and identify directions for mitigating the emerging threats. It is proved that the existing food security crisis is caused by many factors, and there is also a need to restore global reserves. This process would be significantly accelerated if Ukraine were able to resume its role in the global food market. However, the war goes on, which continues to have a negative impact on production and generates uncertainty about food security. According to the results of the carried out analysis, it is determined that the interaction of international organizations in the field of food security and government agencies is a very important factor in solving issues of stabilizing the level of food security. Certainly, not all potential threats can be predicted if they are natural, geopolitical or of economic nature, but the interaction of FAO and similar organizations with analytical associations can contribute to a partial solution to this problem. It is substantiated that the transformation of the food sector should be inclusive, ensuring the active involvement of all its actors (for example, governments, international organizations, companies, farmers, etc.) in the development and implementation of targeted measures. In addition, this transformation is connected with the implementation of policies that reduce dependence on several exporting countries and replace corn and wheat with local crops, as well as the development of domestic food systems aimed at creating a network of short supply chains based on seasonal products. This will make it possible to mitigate the risks of food security in the global economy in the medium term.
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