Across the firefly-verse: comparison of niche suitability of an exotic firefly in its native and colonized range

Abstract Photinus signaticollis Blanchard, 1846 (Coleoptera: Lampyridae) is a firefly native to South America and recently established in Europe. Since 2016, this firefly has colonized the northeastern part of the Iberian Peninsula and crossed the Pyrenees to reach southern France in 2019. The larvae of this firefly feed on earthworms, so a high density of this species could negatively impact this key group in soil processes and agriculture. The precise extent of colonization, the environmental niche and the potential range expansion in non-native areas are currently unknown. Using species distribution models, we have found the high suitability areas across Europe where P. signaticollis may become established if introduced. Interestingly, using only South American records and associated conditions modelling it can be strongly predicted where the species is currently found in Europe. Despite a few propagules of P. signaticollis detected in very unsuitable areas of Spain were no longer detected after their initial observation, the climatic niche overlap between South America and Europe populations appeared to be very low. In our case, this pattern is more likely to reflect a high unfilled niche rather than a niche expansion or niche shift, because many occupied areas in South America possess a climate not occurring in Europe. Among the considered variables, we furthermore found that only the temperature seasonality appeared to be the same in both native and European areas and relevant in the models, suggesting that it may represent the main limiting factor for establishing this firefly.