Geospatial Analysis of Informal Settlement Development in Cape Town

Informal settlements are a major influence in the urban growth of developing countries such as South Africa. There are also associated with negative socio-economic factors such as unemployment and are lacking in terms of secure land tenure arrangements. This research focuses on developing a geospatial understanding of the internal dynamics of informal settlement development within the City of Cape Town. To investigate how informal settlements are established and developed in a local context, the informal settlements of Imizamo Yethu, Langa, and Siqalo were monitored for the period 2011-2019 using image classification to determine the development, complexity, and compactness of the dwellings. The overall accuracy of the classified maps thus developed ranged between 88 and 96%. Change detection analysis was subsequently used to identify the geospatial trends for each informal settlement across all three. The combination of linear regression and ordinary least squares analysis determined that the major spatial trend driving growth was densification, which was correlated with the availability of open space, unemployment, poverty, and GDP. Furthermore, densification was identified along the major formal external transport routes and informal internal transport networks. It was found that individual settlements present unique internal geospatial development dynamics in the macroeconomic context of Cape Town, but that these tend to differ in the microeconomic context of the city. Among the explanatory variables for this situation were sloped lands, employment opportunities, and neighbouring areas where the incomes of the residents were higher. Across all the informal settlements, open space proved to be the most significant factor, while GDP played the most influential role in explaining shack compactness over time. This study could be used to contribute to policy and decision-making in the formalisation process in these informal settlements.